A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
